WORLD / America
Terror threat against US said serious
(AP)
Updated: 2007-07-18 00:56
The terrorist network Al-Qaida will likely leverage its contacts and
capabilities in Iraq to mount an attack on U.S. soil, according to a new
National Intelligence Estimate on threats to the United States.
A video grab from an undated footage from the Internet shows Al Qaeda
leader Osama bin Laden making statements from an unknown location. Osama
bin Laden praises martyrdom as a weapon and a path to glory for Muslims
in a video that CNN said on July 14, 2007 was intercepted before it was
to appear on radical Islamist Web sites. [REUTERS]
The declassified key findings, to be released publicly on Tuesday, were
obtained in advance by The Associated Press.
The report lays out a range of dangers �� from al-Qaida to Lebanese
Hezbollah to non-Muslim radical groups �� that pose a "persistent and
evolving threat" to the country over the next three years. As expected,
however, the findings focus most of their attention on the gravest terror
problem: Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida network.
The report makes clear that al-Qaida in Iraq, which has not yet posed a
direct threat to U.S. soil, could become a problem here.
"Of note," the analysts said, "we assess that al-Qaida will probably seek
to leverage the contacts and capabilities of al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI), its
most visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have
expressed a desire to attack the homeland."
The analysts also found that al-Qaida's association with its Iraqi
affiliate helps the group to energize the broader Sunni Muslim extremist
community, raise resources and recruit and indoctrinate operatives ��
"including for homeland attacks."
National Intelligence Estimates are the most authoritative written
judgments of the 16 spy agencies across the breadth of the U.S.
government. These agencies reflect the consensus long-term thinking of
top intelligence analysts. Portions of the documents are occasionally
declassified for public release.
The White House brushed off critics who allege the administration
released the intelligence estimate at the same time the Senate is
debating Iraq. White House press secretary Tony Snow pushed back at the
critics Tuesday, saying they are "engaged in a little selective hearing
themselves to shape the story in their own political ways."
"We don't keep it on the shelf and say `Let's look for a convenient
time,'" Snow said.
"We're trying to remind people is that this is a real threat. This is not
an attempt to divert. As a matter of fact ... we would much rather �� one
of the things we'd like to do is call attention to the successes in the
field" in Iraq, he said.
Democrats said the report was proof U.S. anti-terrorism efforts were
being drained by the Iraq war.
"We must responsibly redeploy our troops out of Iraq, handing
responsibility for security over to the Iraqis and leaving only those
forces required for limited missions," said Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo.,
chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. "This will allow us to
concentrate our efforts on Afghanistan and the al-Qaida terrorists who
attacked us on 9/11."
House Republican leader Rep. John Boehner of Ohio said the report
confirms gains made by Bush and blamed Democrats for being too soft on
terrorism.
"Retreat is not a new way forward when the safety and security of future
generations of Americans are at stake," he said in a statement.
The new report echoed statements made by senior intelligence officials
over the last year, including the assessment of spy agencies that the
country is in a "heightened threat environment." It also provided new
details on their thinking and concerns.
For instance, the report says that worldwide counterterrorism efforts
since 2001 have constrained al-Qaida's ability to attack the U.S. again
and convinced terror groups that U.S. soil is a tougher target.
But, the report quickly adds, analysts are concerned "that this level of
international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory
and perceptions of the threat diverge."
Among the report's other findings:
_Al-Qaida is likely to continue to focus on high-profile political,
economic and infrastructure targets to cause mass casualties, visually
dramatic destruction, economic aftershocks and fear. "The group is
proficient with conventional small arms and improvised explosive devices
and is innovative in creating new capabilities and overcoming security
obstacles."
_The group has been able to restore key capabilities it would need to
launch an attack on U.S. soil: a safe haven in Pakistan's tribal areas,
operational lieutenants and senior leaders. U.S. officials have warned
publicly that a deal between the Pakistani government and tribal leaders
allowed al-Qaida to plot and train more freely in parts of western
Pakistan for the last 10 months.
_The group will continue to seek weapons of mass destruction �� chemical,
biological or nuclear material �� and "would not hesitate to use them."
_Lebanese Hezbollah, a Shiite Muslim extremist group that has conducted
anti-American attacks overseas, may be more likely to consider attacking
here, especially if it believes the United States is directly threatening
the group or its main sponsor, Iran.
_Non-Muslim terrorist groups probably will attack here in the next
several years, although on a smaller scale. The judgments don't name any
specific groups, but the FBI often warns of violent environmental groups,
such as Earth Liberation Front, and others.
The publicly disclosed judgments, laid out over two pages, are part of a
longer document, which remains classified. It was approved by the heads
of all 16 intelligence agencies on June 21.
In the last week, reports on this document and another threat assessment
on al-Qaida's resurgence have renewed the debate in Washington about
whether the Bush administration is on the right course in its war on
terror, particularly in Iraq.
The White House has used the reports as evidence that the country must
continue to go after al-Qaida in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. But
critics say the evolving threat is evidence of a policy gone wrong.
The debate �� and the underlying global problem �� will not go away soon.
The high-level estimate notes that the spread of radical ideas,
especially on the Internet, growing anti-U.S. rhetoric and increasing
numbers of radical cells throughout Western countries indicate the
violent segments of the Muslim populations is expanding.
"The arrest and prosecution by U.S. law enforcement of a small number of
violent Islamic extremists inside the United States ... points to the
possibility that others may become sufficiently radicalized that they
will view the use of violence here as legitimate," the estimate said. "We
assess that this internal Muslim terrorist threat is not likely to be as
severe as it is in Europe, however."
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